세상은 캐나다가 따라잡는데 어려움을 겪을 정도로 빠르게 변화하고 있다.
지난주에는 일본 정부의 아키바 다케오 국가안전보장국장의 칼럼이 캐나다의 여러 매체에 소개되었다. 다케오 국장은 칼럼에서 2022년 일본 정부가 군대 정책을 변경하기로 결정한 이유 그리고 일본이 세계 무대에서 법치를 보호하는데 더 큰 역할을 할 수 있는 역량을 강화하기 위한 것이라는 설명을 하였다.
캐나다도 이 같은 역할이 필요하므로 다케오 국장의 칼럼이 소개된 것으로 볼 수 있다. 미국은 그 역할에서 멀어지고 있다는 징후들이 나타나고 있기 때문이다.
일본 기시다 후미오 총리는 4월 11일 미국 연방의사당에서 열린 상·하원 합동회의에서 약 34분 동안 영어로 연설하면서, 국제사회에서 미국의 중요성을 강조했다. 그러면서 그는 “미국이 혼자 부담을 짊어지지 않도록 일본이 적극 돕겠다.”고 했다.
기시다 총리는 북한 핵문제와 북한의 무기 수출, 중국의 군사 대국화 등을 언급하면서 “세상은 미국이 국가 간의 문제와 관련해 계속해서 중추적인 역할을 하는 것이 필요하다.”고 말했다. 이어 그는 “미국이 여러 세대 동안 구축하기 위해 노력해 온 국제 질서가 가치와 원칙이 매우 다른 국가로부터의 새로운 도전에 직면하고 있다.”며 “지금, 전 세계에서 자유와 민주주의가 위협받고 있다.”고 했다.
기시다 총리는 국제 질서를 유지하는데 “미국의 리더십이 없어서는 안 된다.”는 점을 강조하면서, “하지만, 세계가 역사의 전환점에 서 있는 이 시점에 일부 미국인들 사이에서는 세계에서 미국의 역할이 무엇인지에 대한 자기 회의가 팽배해지고 있다. 탈냉전의 시대는 이미 지나갔고, 이제 우리는 인류 역사의 다음 단계를 결정하는 변곡점이 와 있다.”고 했다.
기시다 총리는 “전 세계가 미국의 리더십에 기대를 걸고 있지만, 미국이 모든 것을 혼자 해낼 것을 기대해서는 안 된다. ‘자유와 민주주의’라는 우주선에 일본이 미국의 동승자가 된 것을 자랑스럽게 생각한다”며 영어와 일본어로 “일본은 미국의 가장 가까운 친구, 도모다치 (友達·친구)로 어깨를 나란히 하고 있다”고 했다.
그렇다면, 왜 캐나다의 언론들이 일본의 정책 변화에 관심을 보일까? 이유는 간단하다. 탈냉전의 시대에 캐나다와 일본의 입장이 어느정도 유사한 면이 있기 때문이다. 일본은 캐나다에 중요한 교훈을 제공하고 있다.
연방정부는 4월 8일 캐나다 군대의 북극 능력 향상이 핵심인 “Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence” 정책을 발표했었다.
ㆍ 관련기사: 캐나다 군대 업그레이드 기반은 북극 주권
캐나다 국방비는 향후 20년간 신규 순지출이 72.3 빌리언 달러 늘어난다. 하지만, 첫 5년간 지출되는 금액은 단지 8 빌리언 달러이다. 이러한 속도의 지출은 2029-30 회계연도에 캐나다 국방비 지출이 NATO와 약속한 GDP의 2 퍼센트에 달하지 못한다는 것을 의미한다. 그리고 정부는 캐나다 군대에 올해 이미 4.4 밀리언 달러 절감액을 마련하라는 지시를 내렸다.
연방정부가 발표한 새로운 프로그램 내용에 지지를 보내는 사람들이 많지만, 일정에 대해서는 강력하게 비판하고 있다. 이유는 간단하다. 미래의 잠재적인 군사적 도전에 대비하여 캐나다가 준비해야 하는 것보다 훨씬 더 느리게 그리고 많은 전통적인 동맹국들보다 훨씬 더 느리게 준비하고 있기 때문이다.
캐나다는 군사적으로 공격적인 러시아와 거대한 북극해를 공유하고 있다. 기시다 일본 총리가 지적한 대로 전 세계적으로 자유와 민주주의가 위협을 받고 있고, 미국은 갑자기 변덕스러운 모습을 보이고 있다.
미국은 이란의 이스라엘 공격에 신경을 집중하고 있다. 미국이 이스라엘 지원에 뛰어들기 전에 몇 개월간 미국 의회는 우크라이나 지원을 의도적으로 지연시키면서 정치적 치킨 게임으로 전환했다.
미국 대통령 선거의 공약 그리고 최근의 국제정책에서, 미국이 세계 질서와 민주주의에 관심을 두지 않는 듯한 모습을 보이고 있는 것으로 동맹국들이 의심하기 시작한 것으로 볼 수도 있다.
캐나다 군사비 지출은 크게 증가할 것으로 예상되고 있다. 그러나 캐나다 정부가 발표한 지출 스케줄을 보면, 향후 5년간은 그렇지 않다는 것이다. 이것은 최근 글로벌 흐름을 잘못 읽은 것으로 보인다는 의견이 많다. 그래서 캐나다 언론들이 일본 정부의 아키바 다케오 국가안전보장국장의 칼럼을 실은 것으로 볼 수 있다.
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Time is often called the soul of motion, the great measure of change, but what if it is merely an illusion? What if we are not moving forward but simply circling the same points, like the smoke from a burning fire, curling back onto itself, repeating patterns we fail to recognize? Maybe the past and future are just two sides of the same moment, and all we ever have is now.
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