식물성-기반의 육류산업이 본격적으로 주목을 받기 시작한 것은 A&W가 5년전 Beyond Meat를 본격적으로 취급하기 시작하면서 시작된 것으로 볼 수 있다.
Beyond Meat의 현재 주가는 2019년 기업공개 당시와 비교하여 아주 낮은 수준이지만, 많은 사람들은 성장가능성이 여전하기 때문에 투자가 필요하다는 이야기를 하고 있다. Beyond Meat가 기업을 공개할 당시 주가가 높았던 것은 초반에 과대광고가 있었다는 것도 염두에 둘 필요가 있다.
시장조사 전문기관인 닐슨이 발표한 자료에 따르면, 2016년 3월부터 2019년 3월까지 미국의 식물성-기반 육류산업은 42 퍼센트 성장했다. 캐나다도 미국과 같은 추세였다. National Research Council Canada는 2019년 보고서에서 2017-17년에 식물성-기반 단백질 제품의 판매가 7 퍼센트 성장한 것으로 발표했다.
캐네이디언 기업인 Maple Leaf Foods는 2020년 식물성 단백질 비즈니스에서 41 퍼센트나 높은 수익증가를 올렸다고 했다. Maple Leaf Foods는 2017년에 Lightlife Foods 그리고 2018년에 Field Roast Grain Meat Co.를 인수하였다. 그리고 두 브랜드를 관리하기 위해 GreenLeaf Foods라는 회사를 설립하여 식물성 단백질 시설에 투자를 늘리고 있다.
Maple Leaf Foods와 같은 전통적인 단백질 대기업이 식물성 단백질 비즈니스에 투자를 늘린다고 하는 것은 성장가능성이 높다는 것이다. Protein Industries Canada는 COVID-19 팬데믹 시기에도 식물성-기반 육류 매출이 급증한 것으로 발표했다.
그러나 COVID-19 팬데믹이 시장을 교란시켰고, 식물성 단백질은 지속 불가능한 속도로 성장했다. 매출에 변화가 생기기 시작했고, 기업들은 투자를 재평가하고 있다.
시장조사업체 Circana에 따르면, 2023년 10월초까지 소시지 그리고 버거 등 신선육 대체식품의 미국 판매량은 21.5 퍼센트 감소했고, 냉동식품 판매량은 6 퍼센트 감소했다.
Beyond Meat는 지난달 비생산인력의 19 퍼센트를 감축한다고 발표했으며, 일부의 제품 라인을 종료하면서 가격과 제조 프로세스를 변경하는 것도 검토하고 있다고 했다.
Maple Leaf Foods도 식물성-기반의 단백질 카테고리 성과가 눈에 띄게 둔화되고 있기 때문에 해당 비즈니스를 재평가할 것이라고 했었다. 이는 업계가 그동안 기대이상의 높은 성장에 대한 후유증을 느끼고 있다는 것을 의미하는 것으로 해석할 수 있다.
전문가들은 식물성-기반의 육류산업에 개선되어야 할 부문이 많다는 이야기를 하고 있다. 예를 들면, 그동안 소비자들은 맛과 질에서 꾸준하게 지적을 해 왔다.
Pulse Canada는 캐나다가 식물성 육류 대체품에 필요한 핵심 성분을 생산하는 대표적인 국가임에도 불구하고 식물성 식품에 대한 가공능력은 시장성장의 추세를 따라잡지 못하고 있는 것이 문제라고 했다.
식물성 단백질이 극복해야 할 가장 큰 과제 중에 하나는 헬스에 민감한 소비자들의 가공방식과 나트륨 수치에 대해 우려를 극복하는 것이다. Protein Industries Canada는 민간부문의 투자가 가장 높은 우순순위라고 했다.
Ernst & Young 이 2023년 9월 Protein Industries Canada에 제출한 보고서에 따르면, 세계 식물성 단백질 시장 규모는 2021년 16.5 빌리언 (미국)달러에서 2035년에는 88.3 빌리언 (미국)달러에서 139.4 빌리언 (미국)달러까지 이를 것으로 예상했다.
Ernst & Young의 보고서는 세계 인구증가가 지속됨에 따라서 식물성-기반의 단백질이 보다 지속가능한 식품 공급원을 위한 유망한 솔루션이 될 수 있다고 했다.
이처럼 식물성 단백질의 꾸준한 성장이 분명해짐에 따라 업계 전반에 투자가 다시 증가할 것으로 예상되고 있다.
National Research Council의 보고서에 따르면, 인구의 40 퍼센트 이상이 더 많은 식물성 단백질 식품을 포함시키기 위해 적극적으로 노력하고 있다고 했다.
Maple Leaf는 올해 수익 보고서에서, 식물성-기반 단백질 카테고리에서 이전처럼 급속한 성장속도에는 미치지 못하지만, 향후 10년간 “완만하지만 여전히 매력적인” 연평균 성장률 10 – 15퍼센트를 기대한다고 했다.
식물성-기반 단백질업계는 여전히 성장하고 있는 안정화 단계에 있기 때문에 기술, 혁신 그리고 맛이 계속적으로 발전함에 따라 전통적인 육류시장의 점유율을 빼앗을 것으로 보고 있다.
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