캐나다 그로서리 인플레이션이 봄까지 2 퍼센트 미만으로 떨어지고, 2024년 남은 기간에 대략 1-2 퍼센트 범위에 머물 것으로 예측하는 보고서가 발표되었다.
농업 전문 대출기업인 Farm Credit Canada (FCC)는 4월 9일 발표한 2024 Food and Beverage Report에서 가격인상에 대한 압력이 완화되면서 2024년 이후 식품가격이 팬데믹 이전의 수준에서 안정될 것으로 예상했다.
FCC는 보고서에서 2024년을 지난해보다 긍정적인 전망이라고 했다. 그러나 일부부문은 금리상승과 타이트한 가계예산으로 여전히 역풍에 직면해 있다는 것이 보고서의 설명이다.
보고서에는 설탕 그리고 밀가루와 같은 특정식품 품목은 물론이고 소비자 지출에 대한 예측도 제공하고 있다.
캐나다의 2월 연간 인플레이션율은 2.8 퍼센트였는데, 그로서리 가격이 하락을 주도했다. 그로서리 인플레이션은 1월 3.4 퍼센트에서 2월에 2.4 퍼센트로 하락했다.
그러나 인플레이션이 둔화된다고 하여 전반적인 물가수준이 하락하는 것은 아니다. Statistics Canada이 발표한 자료에 따르면, 그로서리 가격은 2021년 2월부터 2024년 2월까지 21.6 퍼센트 상승했다.
FCC는 캐네이디언들이 음식은 물론이고 높아진 주거비와 일상 생활비에 대한 싸움을 벌이면서 음식과 음료에 대한 지출을 줄이려는 노력을 해 왔다고 했다. 캐나다 소비자들은 세일 품목을 더 많이 구매, 저렴한 브랜드에 더 많은 관심, 통조림과 냉동식품을 더 많이 구매, 할인 소매점에서 더 많이 쇼핑 그리고 단순하게 식품을 덜 구매했다.
소비자들이 가격에 더욱 민감해짐에 따라 제조업제들은 포장을 수정하고, 보다 저렴한 제품으로 대체하는 방법으로 대응해 왔다는 것이 FCC 보고서의 설명이다.
보고서는 캐네이디언들이 주류에 해한 소비도 줄이고 있다고 했다. 올해는 주류 판매와 생산량이 줄어들 것으로 예상되고 있다.
보고서는 지난 몇 년간 가격이 급격하게 높아진 밀가루를 포함한 일부 식품의 가격이 올해는 하락할 것으로 예상했다. 그래서 연말까지 베이커리 그리고 토르티야 제조가격이 낮아질 것으로 예상된다.
설탕과 코코아는 그렇지 않다. 설탕과 제과 부문은 글로벌 생산 문제로 인해 “상당한 역풍”이 있을 것으로 예상한다는 것이 FCC 보고서의 설명이다. 코코아는 46년만에 최고가를 형성하고 있으며, 계속적으로 가격이 오를 것으로 전망되고 있다.
ㆍ 관련기사: 초콜릿 가격이 상승하는 이유는 기후변화의 영향
FCC는 해당부문의 제조업체들이 마진압박에 직면할 것이며, 업체는 가격을 인상할 것으로 예상된다고 했다. 제조업체들이 포장의 크기를 줄이거나 저렴한 제품으로 대응할 것이기 때문에 전체적인 수요는 견고할 것으로 예상된다는 것이 보고서의 설명이다.
보고서는 식품, 음료 제조업체에 대해서는 비교적 안정적인 전망을 내놓았다. 연료, 운송 그리고 포장 등 제조단계에서 비용을 높이는 투입요소 중에서 상당수가 가격상승의 속도를 늦추거나 심지어는 하락할 것으로 예상된다는 것이 보고서의 설명이다.
2024년에 식음료 매출은 1.4 퍼센트 감소할 것으로 예상되지만, 제조업체의 마진은 개선될 것으로 예상된다. 지난 3년간 매출 성장의 대부분은 제조업체가 인플레이션 영향으로 인한 마진을 보호하기 위해 투입비용에 이것을 전가했기 때문이다.
다음을 클릭하면, 2024 Food and Beverage Report를 읽을 수 있다.
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