캐나다의 연간 인플레이션이 12월에 연방정부의 임시 GST 면제로 약간 낮아지기는 했지만, 일부 이코노미스트들은 미국의 잠재적 관세 압박이 임박하면서 금리인하가 필요할 것이라는 의견을 제시하고 있다.
Statistics Canada는 1월 21일 연간 인플레이션이 12월에 1.8 퍼센트를 기록한 것으로 발표했는데, 이것은 11월의 1.9 퍼센트보다 미미하게 낮아진 것이다.
보고서는 레스토랑에서 구매한 음식 그리고 매장에서 구입한 주류가 감소에 가장 큰 영향을 미친 것으로 분석했다.
Statistics Canada는 또한 GST 면제가 없었다면, 연간 인플레이션이 2.3 퍼센트로 상승했을 것이라고 했다. 이는 브리티시 컬럼비아의 숙박비가 급상승한 영향도 있다는 것이 보고서의 지적이다. 이유는 Taylor Swift가 12월 초에 밴쿠버에서 Eras Tour를 마무리했기 때문이다.
시중은행의 한 수석 이코노미스트는 세금 감면을 제외하고 보았을 때 좋은 보고서는 아니라고 했다. 시중은행의 또다른 수석 이코노미스트는 연방정부의 GST 면제가 2월 15일까지 계속되기 때문에 세금 감면의 영향은 올해 1월과 2월 Statistics Canada 보고서에도 계속적으로 영향을 미칠 것이라고 했다.
연간 그로서리 가격은 11월 2.6 퍼센트 인상에서 1.9 퍼센트로 둔화되었다. 가스 가격은 3.5 퍼센트 상승했는데, 이것은 2023년 12월에 4.4 퍼센트 하락한 “기준 연도 효과” 때문이라는 것이 Statistics Canada 보고서의 설명이다.
주거비 인플레이션은 12월에 약간 하락하여 4.5 퍼센트가 되었지만, 여전히 높은 수준을 유지하고 있으며, 임대료는 12월에 전년과 비교하여 7.1 퍼센트로 약간 둔화되는 모습을 보였다.
이제는 다음주 Bank of Canada의 결정에 주목이 쏠리고 있다. 다수의 이코노미스트들은 12월 0.5 퍼센트 포인트 인하에 이어, 또 다른 0.25 퍼센트 포인트 인하를 예상하고 있다. 시중은행의 한 수석 이코노미스트는 중앙은행의 결정에 미칠 요인으로 Donald Trump 대통령의 25 퍼센트 관세 위협 때문이라고 했다. 미국 대통령은 2월 1일부터 캐나다에 관세를 부과하는 것에 대해 숙고하고 있다는 발언을 했었다.
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