최근 실시한 한 설문조사에 따르면, 캐네이디언의 68 퍼센트는 인플레이션이 높은 시기를 활용하여 그로서리 업체가 무리하게 가격을 높이고 있는 것으로 생각하고 있는 것으로 나타났다.
일부의 시민단체와 정치인들은 주정부 그리고 연방정부에 물가상승에 대한 조사를 요청하고 있다. 퀘벡과 브리티시 콜롬비아의 소고기 산업에 대한 집단소송이 대표적인 사례이다. 자동차, 통신, 제약 그리고 항공을 포함한 다양한 부분에서 부풀려진 가격이 대한 소비자들의 불만이 나타날 것으로 보인다.
그러나 식품은 다르다는 것이 일부 전문가들의 견해이다. 이유는 산지에서 소비자의 식탁에 오르기까지 적절한 균형 그리고 섬세한 과정에 따라 진행되기 때문이다.
음식은 자동차 또는 일반 가정용품을 운반하는 것보다 복잡하다. 그로서리는 부패하기 쉽기 때문에 저온으로 제어되는 공급망 네트워크에 의존, 시간과의 전쟁, 많은 폐기물, 높은 비용 그리고 날씨를 포함한 예측할 수 없는 상황 등과 관련이 있기 때문이다.
캐나다를 대표하는 그로서리 기업들의 실적에서 그리드플레이션 (greedflation: greed+inflation, 탐욕에 의한 인플레이션)이 아니라는 것을 알 수 있다. 캐나다 최대의 소매점인 Loblaws는 2017년 이후로 29.35-31.47 퍼센트의 마진에 1.64-3.53 퍼센트의 이익을 유지하고 있다.
Empire/Sobeys는 2017년 23.97 퍼센트에서 2021년 25.47 퍼센트의 마진 그리고 2017년 0.67 퍼센트에서 2021년 2.48 퍼센트의 이익을 유지하고 있다. Metro는 Jean Coutu Group을 인수했던 2018년에 11.93 퍼센트의 이익을 기록한 것을 제외하고는 비슷한 수준을 유지하고 있다.
물론, 전문가들은 마진과 이익이 약간 높아지기는 했지만, 은행을 포함한 주요 경제주체들과 비교했을 때 낮은 수준으로 평가하고 있다.
그리고 그들은 대부분의 캐나다 연금기금이 3대 주요 그로서리 기업 중에서 한곳 이상의 주식을 보유하고 있으므로 좋은 성과로 인한 혜택이 캐네이디언들에게 돌아간다는 점을 명심할 필요가 있다는 이야기를 하고 있다.
캐나다 그로서리 업체가 가격을 담합한 사례도 있기 때문에 지속적으로 그리드플레이션을 의심할 필요는 있다. 몇 년 전에 있었던 빵 가격 담합이 대표적인 사례이다.
World Economic Forum에 따르면, 캐네이디언들은 전체 예산의 9.1 퍼센트를 식품에 지출한다. 미국에서는 7 퍼센트이다.
캐나다 식품 인플레이션이 곧 정점에 도달하거나 이미 정점에 도달한 것으로 보인다. 식품 가격은 계속해서 오를 것이지만, 앞으로 몇 개월간은 훨씬 느린 속도로 오를 것으로 전망되고 있다.
우리는 식품 인플레이션이 정상적인 경제현상이라는 것을 명심할 필요가 있다. 지난 20년간의 통계자료를 보면, 캐나다의 이상적인 식품 인플레이션은 1.5 퍼센트에서 2.5 퍼센트 사이였다. 그러나 지난 1년간은 너무나 높은 수준이었다. 그래서 그리드플레이션을 의심하는 것이다.
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