1963년 5월 케네디 대통령은 “60년대 안에 달에 사람을 보내겠다”는 야심차고 분명한 목표를 제시한다. 우주개발은 냉전시대에 미국과 소련 서로가 우월성을 과시하기 위한 이벤트였다. 그런데 1957년 소련이 인공위성 스푸트니크 (sputnik) 1~3호를 잇달아 발사하면서 미국은 불안과 패배감에 휩싸였었다. 하지만 케네디의 연설은 미국민에게 희망을 주었고, 결국 69년 7월20일 아폴로11호로 인해 현실이 되었다.
이처럼 어려운 시기에 희망을 주는 목표가 있는가 하면 희망고문을 하는 목표도 많다. 올해는 물론이고 내년에도 살림살이가 힘들 것 같은데, 일년내내 ‘상저하고 (上低下高, 상반기는 어렵고 하반기는 회복)’만 외치던 정부는 이제 내년엔 좋아진다고 말한다. 대통령이 진두지휘한 덕분에 막판 역전극까지 가능하다던 부산엑스포는 119대 29의 참패로 끝났다. 그런데도 2035년 다시 도전하면 된다고 한다. 인디언 기우제처럼 될 때까지 할 모양인가 보다.
1959년 착공한 시드니 오페라하우스는 63년 완공을 목표로 했지만 73년이 돼서야 완공되었다. 당연히 공사비도 7백만 호주달러 (60억원)에서 1억 호주달러 (900억원)로 늘어났다. 조개껍데기 모양의 아름다운 지붕이었지만 당시 기술로는 구현이 어렵다보니 계속 설계변경이 이루어진 탓이다.
왜 이런 일이 벌어졌을까? ‘계획오류 (Planning Fallacy)’ 때문이다. 행동경제학자 Amos Tversky와 Daniel Kahneman은 지나친 낙관과 자신에 대한 과신으로 인해 이런 일이 발생한다고 했다. 우리도 동료가 핸드폰에 문제가 생겼다고 만지작 거리고 있으면, “이리줘봐”라고 하며 마치 해결할 수 있을 것처럼 말한다. 근거도 없이 말이다.
예상치 못한 상황으로 인해 계획에 차질이 생길 수는 있다. 하지만 외부요인으로 책임을 돌리고 자기 문제를 들여다 보지 않는다면 세계 잼버리대회의 망신은 반복될 수 밖에 없다. “할 수 있다”는 확신은 자기를 객관적으로 볼 수 있는 메타인지 (자기성찰능력)가 전제되어야 한다.
실행 의지도 없고, 그럴 능력도 없이 목표를 말하는 것은 분노를 부를 뿐이다. 때문에 공정하고 자유로운 세상, 힘에 의한 평화처럼 양치기 소년의 거짓말은 그만 듣고 싶다. 그저 오늘이 행복하고 내일이 기다려지는 2024년을 살았으면 좋겠다.
(■ 강래경: www.connect value.net 수석교수, (사)한국강사협회 회장, Instagram @KANG.NAEKYUNG)
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