Statistics Canada는 휘발유 가격이 지난해 동기대비 급락하면서 10월 연간 인플레이션율이 약간 둔화된 것으로 발표하였다.
Statistics Canada에 따르면, 10월 소비자물가지수(CPI, consumer price index)는 9월의 3.8 퍼센트보다 약간 낮아진 3.1 퍼센트였다.
ㆍ 관련기사: 캐나다 2023년 10월 지역과 주요도시 인플레이션
이코노미스트들은 인플레이션 외에도 기업의 고용둔화와 소비자들의 수요감소 영향으로 경기가 더 이상 과열되지 않을 것이라는 전망을 내놓고 있다.
휘발유 가격은 지난해 10월과 비교하여 7.8 퍼센트 하락했는데, 9월에는 7.5 퍼센트 상승했었다. 휘발유를 제외한 소비자물가지수는 9월 3.7 퍼센트에 이어 10월에도 3.6 퍼센트 상승했었다.
Bank of Canada는 인플레이션을 2 퍼센트로 되돌리기 위해 기준금리를 5 퍼센트로 유지하기로 했지만, 상황에 따라 정책금리를 더 인상할 가능성도 있다는 이야기를 했었다.
그러나 Statistics Canada의 10월 인플레이션 자료를 분석한 이코노미스트들은 근본적으로 인플레이션이 진정되고 있는 상황이기 때문에 Bank of Canada가 기준금리를 인상하지 않을 가능성이 높다는 의견을 내놓고 있다.
또한, 일부의 이코노미스트들은 Bank of Canada가 내년 2분기까지 금리인하를 시작하지 않을 것이며, 이후에는 적당한 수준의 금리인하를 단행할 것으로 예상했다.
금리인하는 느리고 점진적으로 진행될 것이며, 2024년에는 4 퍼센트로 끝날 것으로 예상된다는 것이 이코노미스트들의 설명이다.
10월 인플레이션 보고서에 따르면, 상품 가격은 1.6 퍼센트 올랐고, 서비스 가격은 4.6 퍼센트 오른 것으로 나타났다. 이는 주로 여행, 임대료, 재산세 그리고 기타의 특별비용이 인상되었기 때문이다.
Statistics Canada는 인플레이션의 가장 큰 원인은 모기지 이자비용, 매장에서 구입한 식품비용 그리고 렌트비 때문이라고 했다.
모기지 이자비용은 1년전보다 30.5 퍼센트 인상되었고, 임대료는 8.5 퍼센트 높아졌다.
그로서리 가격은 전체 인플레이션보다 빠르게 높아졌지만, 상승하는 속도가 둔화되고 있다는 것이 Statistics Canada의 설명이다. 그로서리 가격은 9월의 5.8 퍼센트 상승에 비해 10월에는 전년대비 5.4 퍼센트 상승하였다.
Bank of Canada의 Tiff Macklem 총재가 11월 29일 Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce에서 있을 연설에 관심이 쏠리고 있으며, 중앙은행은 12월 6일 올해 마지막 기준금리를 결정할 예정이다.
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