선거자금의 흐름을 통해 선거에서 승리한 정당과 패배한 정당의 차이를 분석하는 것도 한가지 방법이다. 매니토바에서는 지방선거가 있은 후 정당들이 제출한 연간 재정 보고서를 바탕으로, 언론 그리고 평론가들이 다양한 분석들을 내놓고 있는 것이 보통이다.
Manitoba New Democratic Party (NDP)는 지난해 10월 실시된 매니토바 지방선거 비용과 기금 모금에서 2.3 밀리언 달러를 모은 것으로 보고서를 제출하였다. 이 금액은 Manitoba NDP 역사에서 선거 기간 중 그리고 기간 외에 모금한 금액 중에서는 가장 큰 금액이다.
Manitoba NDP가 언론과 인터뷰한 내용을 종합해 보면, 지난해 150,000 달러의 흑자를 기록했다. Elections Manitoba는 등록된 정당이 최소 5 퍼센트 이상의 득표율을 기록할 경우 사용한 선거비용의 일부를 환급해 주기 때문에 흑자액은 더 늘어날 것으로 예상되고 있다. 매니토바 정치 평론가들은 과거 선거 환급금을 기준으로 500,000 달러 이상을 받을 것으로 예상하고 있다.
Manitoba NDP의 2023년 재정 성과는 사상 최고였지만, 모든 정당이 모금한 액수 중에서 가장 높은 금액은 아니었다.
Manitoba Progressive Conservative (PC)는 2016년에 실시된 지방선거를 전후하여 4.1 밀리언 달러의 총수입을 기록했고, 그 결과 연말에 흑자가 500,000 달러는 넘었었다.
기부자들은 선거에서 승리할 가능성이 있는 사람 그리고 선거에서 승리한 사람을 좋아한다는 것을 2023년과 2016년 매니토바 지방선거에서 볼 수 있다.
예를 들면, 2016년 지방선거를 앞두고 Greg Selinger 주수상이 이끄는 NDP는 아주 낮은 지지율을 기록하고 있었기 때문에 지지자들로부터 자금을 모금하는데 큰 어려움을 겪었다. 물론, NDP는 선거에서 큰 차이로 패배하였다.
2023년 10월에 실시된 매니토바 지방선거에서 매니토바의 대표적인 정당인 NDP와 PC는 아주 다른 방식으로 선거 캠페인을 진행한 것으로 나타났다.
ㆍ 관련기사: 선거 전략에서 승리한 Manitoba NDP
양당이 제출한 재정 보고서를 보면, NDP는 캠페인 중에 총 1.8 밀리언 달러를 지출했고, PC는 약간 낮은 1.5 밀리언 달러를 지출했다. 그러나 돈을 사용한 방식에서는 큰 차이가 있었다.
예를 들면, NDP는 개별 후보자에게 훨씬 더 많은 자금을 지원하였다. 자금이 풍부한 정당은 의석을 유지하거나 빼앗을 목적으로 치열한 경쟁을 벌이고 있는 후보자에게 더 많은 자금을 지원하는 경향이 있다.
각 정당의 재정 보고서를 보면, NDP는 54명의 후보자에게 326,000 달러를 이체하였으며, PC는 18명의 후보자에게 단지 90,000 달러만 이체하였다. 접전이 많았던 지역을 감안할 경우, PC가 지역구 지원을 늘리지 않았던 것은 이상해 보일 정도이다.
PC는 광고비에 642,000 달러를 지출했고, NDP는 810,000 달러를 지출했었다. 하지만, 여론조사 비용으로 PC는 573,000 달러 그리고 NDP는 237,000 달러를 집행하였다.
선거 캠페인은 정치적 도박의 한 형태이다. 지난해 가을 매니토바 지방선거에서 유급직원과 여론조사에 많은 돈을 지출한 정당은 후보자에게 더 많은 자금을 지원한 장당에게 패배하였다. 지난해 매니토바 지방선거는 자금의 흐름이 선거의 결과와 연관되어 있다는 것을 분석할 수 있는 좋은 사례로 볼 수 있다.
선거와 자금의 대한 이야기는 1976년에 발표된 “All The President’s Men (모두가 대통령의 사람들)’이라는 영화에서 잘 묘사하고 있다. 이 영화에 “돈을 쫓아가 보라”는 의미 있는 대사가 있다.
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