얼마전 케냐에서 재배된 쌀이 높은 비료가격과 엘니뇨로 인한 가뭄의 영향으로 생산량이 감소하여 가격이 급등했다는 보도들이 있었다. 케냐는 쌀 부족분을 인도에서 수입해 왔는데, 세계 최대의 쌀 수출국인 인도가 지난달부터 쌀 선적을 부분적으로 금지하면서 가격이 또다시 급등하고 있는 것으로 알려지고 있다. ‘
인도가 쌀 수출을 부분적으로 금지하는 이유는 선거를 앞두고 자국의 물가를 안정적으로 유지 그리고 불규칙한 날씨로 인한 식량가격의 급등을 막기 위함이다.
전 세계적으로 쌀 가격이 치솟고 있기 때문에 세계 식량안보에 대한 우려도 높아지고 있는 상황이다. 예를 들면, 베트남의 쌀 수출가격이 15년만에 최고치를 기록하면서 일부 가난한 국가들의 취약한 계층을 더욱 위험에 빠뜨리고 있다.
쌀 가격이 상승한 이유는 일부국가와 도매상들이 엘니뇨에 대비하여 쌀을 사들이면서 가격이 오르기 시작했고, 여기에 인도의 바스마티 쌀 수출제한도 한몫을 하고 있는 것이다.
상황을 더 악화시킬 수 있는 상황은 인도가 바스마티 이외의 쌀 수출도 금지할 경우 도미도 현상을 유발하여 다른 국가들도 뒤따를 가능성이 있다는 것이다. 아랍에미리트연합은 이미 국내 재고를 유지하기 위해 쌀 수출을 중단하였다.
또다른 이유는 아프리카에서 쌀 소비가 꾸준하게 늘어나고 있기 때문이다. 대부분의 아프리카 국가들이 자체적으로 쌀을 더 많이 재배하려고 노력하고 있지만, 어려움을 겪고 있다. 그래서 이들 국가들은 수입에 크게 의존하고 있다.
전세계 쌀의 90 퍼센트가 재배되고 있는 아시아 국가들도 생산에 어려움을 겪고 있다. 예를 들면, 필리핀은 태풍 독수리가 북부 쌀 생산지역을 강타하면서 연간 생산량의 약 22 퍼센트정도에 피해를 입힌 것으로 알려지고 있다. 중국 다음으로 큰 쌀 수입국인 필리핀 대통령은 적절한 완충장치의 필요성을 강조하였다.
Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relation은 이번 제한조치로 인해 올해 인도 쌀 수출의 거의 절반이 줄어들 것으로 예상했으며, 이것이 인도를 신뢰할 수 없는 수출국으로 만들 것이라는 우려를 내놓았다.
또 다른 주요 쌀 수출국인 베트남은 쌀 가격이 15년만에 최고 수준이고 연간생산량이 소폭 상승할 것으로 예상하면서 동남아 국가들에 대한 수출을 늘리면서 국내가격을 안정적으로 유지하려는 노력을 기울이고 있다.
베트남 정부는 또한 메콩 삼각주에서 벼 재배면적을 500 스퀘어 킬로미터 (축구장 90,000개보다 넓은 면적)로 늘리기 위해 노력하고 있다고 했다. 베트남은 이미 필리핀과 협상을 발이고 있으며, 인도에서 쌀을 공급받는 영국을 목표로 하고 있다.
태국은 올해 상반기 쌀 수출이 지난해 동기간과 비교하여 15 퍼센트나 늘었기 때문에 2022년보다 더 많은 쌀을 수출할 것으로 보고 있다.
태국 쌀수출업체협회 (Thai Rice Exporters Association)의 쩌른 라오따마따스(Charoen Laothamatas) 회장은 쌀 가격이 급등하고 있기 때문에 최근 언론과의 인터뷰에서 “내일의 가격은 내일이 되어야 알 수 있다.”고 했다.
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